Coastal Sea Level Rise Mapping for Climate Adaptation in Saipan

The multi-frame cartographic maps below show assessed areas of projected inundation under C2 & B2 coastal sea level scenarios. Scenarios were developed using ArcGIS 10.1 software and processing methods developed by NOAA Coastal Services center. Scenarios utilized a modified bathtub model which does not consider future changes in shoreline from coastal processes (i.e. erosion, accretion, wave run-up, etc). The scenarios reflect long-term shore line changes due to climate change, as well as short-term changes in response to large storm events. Accordingly, B2 reflects an intermediate U.S. Army Core of Engineers model after 100 years with 10 year spaced storm events. This resulted in an overall 1.76 meter sea level rise. The C2 scenario reflects a High U.S. Army Core of Engineers model after 50 years with 10 year spaced storm events. This resulted in an overall 1.53 meter sea level rise.

These inundation models were then cross compared to villages with high levels of social vulnerability. High social Vulnerability was defined as villages with high proportions of people who are disabled, elderly, or living below the poverty line. The areas in blue show inundation levels under each scenario, while the levels in red show areas which are projected to be inundated but are also areas with high levels of social vulnerability.